Nigeria has extended its run of crude oil production shortfalls, failing to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day quota approved by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in January 2026.
Data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report showed that the country produced about 1.46 million barrels per day during the month. Output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd in January, reflecting an increase of roughly 38,000 barrels per day.
Despite the improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd allocation, marking the sixth consecutive month Nigeria has missed its target, a streak that began in August 2025.
December’s output had already slipped by 14,000 barrels per day compared to November, according to figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which recorded a decline from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December.
Throughout 2025, Nigeria struggled to consistently meet its OPEC quota. The country fell short in nine months, exceeding or meeting the target only in January, June and July. Production started the year strongly at 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above its allocation. However, output declined to 1.47 mbpd in February and dropped further to 1.40 mbpd in March, one of the largest gaps recorded during the year.
Although production recovered slightly in April at 1.49 mbpd and May at 1.45 mbpd, Nigeria remained under its quota until June, when output edged up to 1.51 mbpd. The country sustained that level in July before slipping below the threshold again in subsequent months.
As 2026 unfolds, expectations are rising that Nigeria will ramp up output, particularly following the announcement that the Dangote refinery has reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, potentially strengthening domestic crude demand and supply dynamics.
Meanwhile, the new Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to boost oil production. In a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, Eyesan said her strategy will focus on three priorities: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.
She noted that the plan aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and includes a target to raise crude output to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
According to her, the commission will work to recover shut-in volumes with economic value, curb natural field decline, reduce losses and accelerate time-to-first oil, while avoiding additional regulatory burdens for operators.
