Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same month of 2024, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The regulator did not explicitly state the reasons for the drop, but industry indicators point to weak investment activity and declining production capacity as key contributing factors.
On a month-on-month basis, total oil output also slipped slightly to 1.544 million bpd in December from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025.
The figures show that Nigeria again failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd OPEC production quota, as 122,385 bpd of the reported output was condensate, which is excluded from OPEC’s quota calculations. Actual crude oil production stood at 1.422 million bpd.
The production shortfall also meant the Federal Government missed its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd, which was based on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about ₦1,500/$.
According to the NUPRC, daily output in December ranged between 1.52 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd, while average crude oil production represented about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, confirmed the decline. Using data from direct communication, OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, fell to 1.422 million bpd in December from 1.436 million bpd in November, a month-on-month decline of 0.9 per cent.
Year-on-year, OPEC data also showed a drop from 1.485 million bpd to 1.422 million bpd, reinforcing concerns over Nigeria’s ability to sustain production levels.
Commenting on the trend, Professor Wumi Iledare, Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, attributed the persistent shortfall to insecurity, limited new oil discoveries, policy uncertainty and governance challenges.
“Nigeria urgently needs clear leadership and consistent implementation of sector reforms to restore investor confidence. It has been a long time since the country met its OPEC quota,” he said.
