The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is weighing a fresh production hike in November, even as the group continues to fall short of existing quotas, deepening concerns over its ability to manage global oil prices.
Brent crude slipped below $70 per barrel after signals of more supply for the fourth quarter, reflecting how swiftly the market discounted OPEC+ assurances in the face of persistent production shortfalls.
Analysts say the widening gulf between announced output increases and actual exports is undermining confidence in the cartel’s capacity to stabilise prices as effectively as in previous cycles.
The credibility gap has been compounded by Russia’s volatile export figures. Fresh tanker-tracking data from Kpler showed Moscow’s seaborne crude shipments plunged to 2.96 million barrels per day in September, the lowest since April 2022.
The steepest declines came from Baltic and Black Sea loadings. By contrast, Bloomberg’s four-week moving average put Russian exports at 3.62 million barrels per day through September 21, underscoring the difficulty in tracking flows.
With Asian refiners scaling back spot purchases and U.S. fuel consumption easing into the autumn lull, traders warn that OPEC+’s mixed signals and Russia’s erratic supply data risk fuelling fresh volatility in the months ahead.
