CBN Forecasts Current Account Surplus of $18.81 Billion in 2026 as Growth and Resilience Improve

Nigeria’s external sector is expected to show a remarkable improvement in 2026, with the current account surplus projected to reach $18.81 billion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook. This projection marks a continued strengthening of the nation’s external finances and reflects sustained foreign exchange inflows, stronger export receipts and resilient remittance flows.

At the heart of this forecast is the expected performance of Nigeria’s trade and services accounts. The CBN anticipates that goods export earnings will rise significantly, driven by higher crude oil production and increased non-oil exports such as agricultural products and fertilisers. This improvement in exports is critical to bolstering foreign exchange inflows and supporting the balance of payments.

While exports are expected to grow, total imports are also forecast to rise as domestic economic activity expands. Increased demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs will push import figures higher, reflecting deeper industrial activity and infrastructure expansion in the economy.

In terms of the services account, the deficit is predicted to widen due to higher payments for transport, business and professional services. These costs are linked to rising global freight rates and greater utilisation of services as firms expand their operations.

Another important component of the current account balance is the secondary income account, which includes remittances from Nigerians abroad. This account is expected to register a significant surplus, supported by strong inflows as more funds are sent home by the diaspora. Such remittances provide a stable source of foreign currency and help support consumer spending and investment.

Despite the overall positive outlook, Nigeria continues to face structural challenges. Higher import demand and payments to foreign investors such as interest and dividend outflows — will exert pressure on the current account. These outflows are partly due to attractive yields on Nigerian assets, which draw in foreign portfolio investment but also lead to income outflows later.

In addition, while the current account surplus is improving, its sustainability depends on continued growth in exports and stable external market conditions. Export performance remains linked to global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, and broader global demand for Nigerian products.

The CBN’s outlook comes amid broader positive macroeconomic signals. Recent projections from the bank and other media reports indicate that Nigeria’s economic growth could reach around 4.49% in 2026, driven by reforms that have stabilised foreign exchange markets and boosted oil output.

However, challenges such as public debt pressures and potential tightening of liquidity in the private sector have also been highlighted, pointing to the need for careful fiscal and monetary coordination going forward.

Nigeria’s external reserves, another measure of economic health are also expected to strengthen, with projections suggesting they could rise to over $50 billion by the end of 2026. This reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s ability to manage external shocks and maintain adequate buffers for imports and external payments.

In summary, Nigeria’s projected current account surplus of $18.81 billion in 2026 highlights a stronger external position, helped by export improvements, solid remittance inflows and ongoing macroeconomic reforms. At the same time, rising imports, payments to foreign investors and broader global economic uncertainties remain factors that policymakers must continue to monitor.

The projected surplus could help Nigeria attract foreign investment and strengthen investor confidence, potentially lowering borrowing costs and stabilising the naira. A healthier external balance may also improve credit ratings and support long-term economic planning, boosting private sector growth and employment as global demand for Nigerian exports rises.