New data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has revealed that the Dangote Refinery significantly underperformed its petrol supply projections in November, even as Nigeria’s overall fuel stocks were bolstered by a massive increase in imports.
According to the regulator’s November 2025 Fact Sheet, the much-anticipated refinery, owned by Africa’s wealthiest man Aliko Dangote, was expected to deliver 35 million liters of petrol daily to the domestic market.
However, it only managed to supply an average of 23.52 million liters per day.
This shortfall occurred even as national daily petrol consumption saw a slight decrease to 52.9 million liters from 56.7 million in October. Despite the lower demand and the refinery’s missed target, the total daily petrol supply across Nigeria surged from 46 million liters in October to 71 million liters in November.
This increase was overwhelmingly driven by imports, which accounted for 52.1 million liters per day, while all local refineries combined, including Dangote, contributed just 19.5 million liters.
The NMDPRA explained that the import surge was a corrective action to compensate for low supply levels in September and October and to build up reserves ahead of the high-demand festive season.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) acted as the “supplier of last resort” to ensure the country remained well-stocked.
The release of these figures comes amid a leadership transition at the NMDPRA, following the resignation of its chief executive, Farouk Ahmed.
His departure came shortly after Aliko Dangote accused him of frustrating local refining by continuing to issue import licenses.
Dangote has since promised a significant ramp-up in production, stating the refinery would supply 1.5 billion liters of petrol in both December and January—equivalent to about 50 million liters daily—to meet holiday demand and reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign fuel.
The November report, however, highlights the current gap between the refinery’s capacity and its actual output, underscoring Nigeria’s continued reliance on imports to keep the economy fueled.
