Nigeria stands poised for what could be its most significant economic upswing in over ten years, according to Bismarck Rewane, chief of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC). His forecast follows a presentation at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 in Lagos where he argued that a blend of falling inflation, renewed investment, major corporate listings and stabilising monetary conditions will launch the country into a fresh, durable growth cycle.
Rewane lays out a sweeping vision for 2026, describing it as a “defining year” in which structural reforms, stronger private-sector activity and better policy coordination converge to reset the economy. He points to a reordering across major sectors such as manufacturing, banking, technology, telecoms, real estate and the creative industries signalling a departure from years of economic turbulence marked by deep inflation, currency instability and scant investment.
At the centre of his bullish outlook is a dramatic expansion of the stock market. He projects that the total market capitalisation of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) could hit ₦262 trillion in 2026 up sharply from current levels around ₦93 trillion. At that valuation, NGX would represent roughly 72 per cent of Nigeria’s projected GDP, placing it among the fastest-growing equity markets in emerging economies. The expected surge is underpinned by anticipated listings of major corporates including Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) alongside strong earnings across telecoms, cement, consumer goods and banking sectors.
Inflation, a persistent drag on growth, is also expected to ease significantly. Rewane forecasts food and core inflation falling to about 20 per cent in 2026. This anticipated drop, he explains, rests on commitments from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain disinflationary policies, boosts in domestic refining capacity which should stabilise fuel prices, rising manufacturing output, higher productivity, and reforms designed to cut logistics and supply-chain costs. As inflation falls, household purchasing power is likely to improve potentially triggering stronger demand for retail goods, services and industrial products.
With inflation easing and currency pressures moderating, Rewane expects interest rates to begin easing in 2026, though cautiously. The CBN, he says, will need clear evidence of sustained disinflation, improved liquidity, better foreign-exchange supply and credible fiscal consolidation before trimming rates. A more stable exchange rate is also in the cards, with projections pointing to the naira strengthening to between ₦1,450 and ₦1,500 per dollar, supported by increased oil production and export earnings, improved foreign-exchange supply, and reforms reducing currency speculation. Such stability, he argues, will be crucial for restoring investor confidence and enabling long-term business planning.
On the broader economic front, Rewane forecasts a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.1 per cent in 2026, driven by increased business activity, infrastructure development, improved private-sector credit, stronger trade flows and greater domestic value addition. With consumption expected to rebound from inflation-driven weakness and investment bolstered by public-infrastructure expansion and greater business confidence, the stage is set for a comprehensive economic reset.
He identifies six sectors with the highest potential for growth: agriculture and agro-processing; real estate and construction; telecommunications; manufacturing; creative industries; and technology/fintech. Agriculture and agro-processing top the list, signalling a shift toward value-added production. Real estate, telecoms, manufacturing, creative industries and fintech are also highlighted as key engines for growth, driven by demographic trends, urbanisation, digital expansion and broader macroeconomic reforms.
Rewane further notes that stronger corporate earnings particularly from industry heavyweights such as MTN Nigeria and Dangote Cement will be important barometers of renewed economic vitality. He also expects Nigeria’s banking sector to gain stability through improved liquidity, reduced FX exposure, growing digital banking penetration, and stronger capital buffers following recent recapitalisation efforts.
Yet, he cautions that this optimistic trajectory is not guaranteed. External factors such as volatile global commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, and potential weaknesses in global demand could disrupt growth. Domestically, risks remain: a sharp dip in oil prices, worsening insecurity in key agricultural regions, excessive election-year spending and instability in key commodity markets could undermine progress. According to Rewane, 2026 will be a pivotal year, with Nigeria at a crossroad: move confidently forward on the path of reform and growth, or risk losing momentum if policies falter.
