Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.98 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2025, according to new figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The growth rate is slightly stronger than the 3.86 percent recorded in the same period of 2024 and reflects a modest improvement in key productive sectors despite persistent inflationary pressures and security-related disruptions.
The latest data shows that agriculture and industry were the main drivers of the upturn. Agriculture grew by 3.79 percent year on year compared with 2.55 percent in the third quarter of 2024. The sector benefited from relatively improved rainfall patterns and gradual recovery in crop production which had been constrained by insecurity across farming regions. Analysts note that rising food prices remain a concern but the uptick in agricultural activity offers some relief for both output and employment.
Industrial output rose by 3.77 percent, up from 2.78 percent a year earlier. Manufacturing showed signs of resilience as firms adjusted to higher energy costs and exchange rate volatility. The construction sector also contributed to the improvement, supported by public infrastructure spending and renewed private sector activity. However, industry continues to operate below potential due to challenges in power supply and rising borrowing costs.
The services sector maintained its position as the largest segment of the economy, accounting for 53.02 percent of total real GDP. Growth in services slowed to 4.15 percent from 4.97 percent in the third quarter of 2024 as consumer spending was weighed down by persistent inflation and weak household purchasing power. Despite the slowdown, telecommunications, finance, real estate, and trade remained strong enough to support overall economic stability.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP rose to 113.59 trillion naira, representing an 18.12 percent increase over the same quarter of last year. Nominal growth remains significantly higher than real growth due to the impact of inflation and currency adjustments.
The oil sector delivered one of its strongest performances in recent quarters. Average daily crude oil production reached 1.64 million barrels per day. This was higher than the 1.47 million barrels per day recorded in the third quarter of 2024 but slightly lower than output levels in the second quarter of 2025. Oil GDP grew by 5.84 percent in real terms and contributed 3.44 percent to total output. Improved production stemmed from better security coordination around major pipelines and partial restoration of shut-in wells. However, output remains below Nigeria’s OPEC quota and continues to be vulnerable to theft, vandalism and underinvestment.
Non-oil activities remained the backbone of the economy. The non-oil sector expanded by 3.91 percent and accounted for 96.56 percent of real GDP in the quarter. Growth was supported by agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, finance, trade, construction and manufacturing. Policymakers have repeatedly emphasised the importance of non-oil growth as the government pushes economic diversification and seeks to reduce exposure to volatile global oil markets.
Economists say the third quarter numbers show cautious improvement but warn that structural constraints continue to restrain Nigeria’s full growth potential. Foreign exchange shortages, high interest rates and a challenging security environment remain major obstacles for businesses. Elevated food inflation also limits the ability of households to spend and weakens the recovery in consumer-facing sectors.
The government is banking on a combination of reforms, including exchange rate adjustments, fiscal consolidation and efforts to attract investment into key industries, to support stronger growth. Sustained recovery in oil production and continued expansion of the non-oil sector will be critical for maintaining momentum into the fourth quarter and beyond.
Nigeria’s overall performance in the third quarter suggests that the economy is stabilising but still far from achieving the higher growth rates needed to reduce unemployment, lift incomes and significantly improve living standards. The next set of quarterly figures will show whether the country can consolidate these gains in the face of ongoing policy and market pressures.
