Nigeria’s crude oil production increased marginally to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
This marks a slight improvement from the 1.39 million bpd recorded in September.
However, despite the uptick, the report revealed that Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC-assigned production quota for the third consecutive month, the last time it met its target being in July 2025.
OPEC data showed that the country averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, a decline from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter. The figures highlight the country’s ongoing challenges in maintaining stable production, despite recent investments and interventions aimed at revitalising the oil sector.
Persistent issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and funding shortages continue to hinder production growth.
Although the government has stepped up security along major oil corridors, production levels are still below pre-2020 averages, when output consistently exceeded 1.8 million bpd.
Push for Higher Quota Amid Global Market Shifts
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has announced plans to request an increase in the country’s OPEC quota to 2 million bpd, up from the current 1.5 million.
He noted that new drilling activities, the revival of dormant oil fields, and increased foreign investment have positioned the country to achieve higher output levels.
Meanwhile, OPEC reported that global oil supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in October, reversing a 400,000-barrel shortfall recorded a month earlier.
The rise was driven largely by increased non-OPEC output, with the United States accounting for more than half of the global supply boost.
Nigeria’s failure to meet its quota poses a risk to its foreign exchange earnings, given that oil remains the country’s primary revenue source.
Nonetheless, the recent gradual rise in output suggests a slow but positive recovery that could ease fiscal pressures if maintained.
With ongoing refinery rehabilitation, the coming onstream of private refineries such as Dangote’s, and renewed upstream investment, Nigeria could be on track for a stronger performance in 2026, provided it tackles security and infrastructure bottlenecks hampering the sector’s full recovery.
