Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, strengthening the Federal Government’s case that its economic reforms are laying the groundwork for its ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2030.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Gross Domestic Product Report released on Monday, August 31, 2026, said real GDP growth accelerated from 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026 and 4.23% in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
The latest performance lifted real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16%, compared with 3.68% in the first half of 2025.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, up 18.43% from N100.73 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
The Federal Ministry of Finance said on September 1, 2026, that the expansion was becoming broader, with 27 economic subsectors recording real growth of more than three per cent during the quarter, compared with 23 subsectors in Q2 2025.
Services remained the largest contributor to real GDP, accounting for 56.62% and growing by 4.60%, compared with 3.94% a year earlier. Agriculture contributed 26.15% and expanded by 4.39%, up from 2.82% in Q2 2025.
The industrial sector grew by 3.96%, although this was significantly lower than the 7.46% recorded a year earlier. Within the sector, manufacturing growth improved to 3.24% from 1.60% in Q2 2025.
The oil sector also strengthened, growing by 7.31% year-on-year. Average crude oil production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day in Q2, from 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1.
Despite the improvement, oil accounted for just 4.16% of real GDP, while the non-oil sector contributed 95.84% and grew by 4.31%.
The Finance Ministry also linked the increase in Nigeria’s dollar-denominated economic output to the naira’s relative stability. According to the ministry, the naira appreciated by more than 12% between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, contributing to an estimated 17% increase in the economy’s US-dollar value over the period.
The Federal Government’s broader economic strategy includes doubling the economy from about $450 billion to approximately $1 trillion, alongside a target of achieving average annual GDP growth of 7%, according to the Federal Ministry of Finance.
President Bola Tinubu welcomed the Q2 figures on August 31, 2026, describing them as evidence that his administration’s reforms were beginning to produce results.
“In the past three years, we tried to do the hard part by implementing the necessary reforms to stabilise the economy. Now the economy is stabilised, and we have laid the foundation for a prosperous nation,” Tinubu said in a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga.
The President also said the reforms had contributed to trade surpluses, stronger foreign reserves, improved credit ratings and increased oil and gas production.
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Nigeria assessment projects real GDP growth of 4.1% for 2026, slightly below the 4.43% recorded in Q2. The IMF said in June 2026 that reforms had improved macroeconomic stability and strengthened resilience, while warning that higher food and transport costs continued to weigh on households and could worsen poverty and food insecurity.
The stronger GDP figures therefore offer evidence of improving macroeconomic performance, but the bigger test for the government remains whether sustained growth can translate into higher household incomes, lower living costs and stronger living standards for Nigerians.
