Nigeria’s cooking gas market delivered a stark reminder in June of how fragile its clean-energy gains remain. Retail LPG prices climbed to nearly ₦2,500 per kilogramme in parts of the country, according to industry data reported at the time, reversing months of relative stability and reigniting fears that households priced out of gas would revert to firewood and charcoal.
The spike proved short-lived. By late June and through July, LPG imports surged by about 1,400 percent, according to Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) data, as marketers rushed cargoes to depots in Lagos, Rivers and Delta. Retail prices subsequently fell to a national range of roughly ₦1,100 to ₦1,650 per kilogramme, with some industry stakeholders suggesting prices could ease toward ₦900 if the supply momentum is sustained. Northern and inland states, farther from coastal depots, continue to face higher retail prices than Lagos, reflecting the outsized role haulage costs play in Nigeria’s LPG market.
The whiplash points to a structural issue rather than a simple supply shortfall. The NMDPRA has reported that domestic production now meets the majority of national LPG demand, marking a significant shift from Nigeria’s historic reliance on imports. Supply is increasingly supported by output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Nigeria LNG and other domestic gas processors. Yet greater domestic production has not translated into consistent price stability. Industry associations have instead pointed to bottlenecks at marine terminals, high trucking costs, limited cylinder penetration and continued exposure to naira volatility on the imported share of supply as the main constraints on affordability.
The timing matters for policy. Through its Decade of Gas Initiative, the Federal Government is seeking to accelerate LPG adoption as part of a broader clean-cooking strategy, supported by programmes involving NNPC, Nigeria LNG, the Dangote Group and other industry participants. Officials have framed the effort as central to improving public health, reducing dependence on traditional biomass fuels, advancing gender equity and supporting Nigeria’s climate commitments. But price shocks such as those witnessed in June risk undermining that transition. Households that revert to firewood or charcoal during periods of elevated LPG prices may not immediately switch back once prices ease, particularly where access to cylinders and refill points remains limited.
Whether Nigeria’s clean-cooking transition ultimately succeeds may therefore depend less on any single price movement and more on whether distribution infrastructure, including trucking capacity, depot access and cylinder availability, can be expanded quickly enough to make LPG both physically accessible and consistently affordable across the country.
