Global cocoa prices extended their recent rally on Thursday, climbing to their highest levels in several months as persistent adverse weather conditions across West Africa heightened concerns over production prospects for the 2026/27 crop season.
New York cocoa futures settled at $6,455 per metric tonne, up 6.66% on the day, marking their strongest closing level in months. London cocoa futures also advanced sharply to a multi-month high as traders increased bullish positions amid growing fears of tighter global supplies.
The latest rally reflects mounting concerns over weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for more than half of global cocoa production. Excessive rainfall across key cocoa-growing regions has disrupted farming activities, damaged rural transport networks, and increased the spread of crop diseases that could affect yields during the next harvest.
Industry analysts say prolonged wet conditions create an ideal environment for fungal diseases such as black pod disease, one of the most destructive threats to cocoa plantations. The combination of saturated soils and reduced access to farms has also complicated routine maintenance and harvesting activities.
Early field assessments have pointed to weaker-than-normal pod development for the upcoming season, prompting expectations of lower production from the world’s largest cocoa-producing countries. Market participants are increasingly factoring in the possibility of another year of constrained supply after consecutive seasons of production challenges.
Supply concerns have also intensified after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus, signalling that the market may remain tighter than previously expected. A smaller surplus leaves less room to absorb any additional weather-related production losses, increasing the likelihood of continued price volatility.
Further adding to market uncertainty are forecasts that climate patterns could shift later in the year, potentially bringing hotter and drier conditions to West Africa during a critical stage of crop development. Such weather extremes could place additional stress on cocoa trees and further limit production potential.
Despite the increasingly cautious outlook, current cocoa availability has not tightened significantly. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast have remained stronger than a year earlier, indicating that supplies from the current crop are still reaching export markets.
However, traders and chocolate manufacturers are focusing more closely on the outlook for the next harvest, with expectations that any further deterioration in weather conditions could keep cocoa prices elevated in the months ahead. The sustained rally also underscores the growing influence of climate-related risks on global agricultural commodity markets, where weather disruptions continue to shape production, trade flows and food manufacturing costs.
