Nigeria’s rising debt profile has continued to raise concerns as the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) warned that the country still faces serious fiscal risks despite slight improvements in some debt indicators.
In its latest debt monitoring report, the NESG explained that Nigeria’s financial situation between 2024 and 2025 shows only minor progress, while deeper economic challenges remain unresolved.
According to the report, Nigeria’s Debt Burden Index (DBI) dropped from 83.6 points in 2023 to 70.9 points in 2024. Although this decline may appear positive, the NESG stressed that it does not mean the country’s debt problems have been solved.
The organisation noted that the improvement was mainly due to reduced debt servicing pressure rather than stronger government earnings or better fiscal management. It explained that Nigeria still relies heavily on borrowing to fund government spending because revenue generation remains weak.
The report also revealed that Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio increased sharply to 40.6 per cent in 2024. This means the country’s total debt continues to grow faster compared to the size of the economy.
According to the NESG, the falling Debt Burden Index and the rising debt-to-GDP ratio show that Nigeria’s financial condition remains fragile. The group warned that the country still faces major fiscal vulnerability despite the temporary signs of stability.
The report further projected that debt pressure would remain high throughout 2025. NESG estimates showed that the Debt Burden Index could rise to 78.4 points in the first quarter of 2025 and increase further to 79.6 points in the second quarter.
Although the index may reduce slightly to 76.2 points in the third quarter, it is expected to climb again to 79.2 points before the end of the year.
The NESG described this pattern as evidence that Nigeria’s debt challenges are far from over. According to the group, the country remains trapped within what it called a “high-stress band,” where debt pressures continue to fluctuate without any lasting structural improvement.
The organisation stressed that the transition from 2024 into 2025 does not yet show clear progress toward long-term debt sustainability. Instead, it reflects only limited adjustments in fiscal management while deeper structural problems remain unresolved.
The NESG added that many of the positive debt figures being highlighted may not fully reflect the true state of Nigeria’s economy. It said the Debt Burden Index provides a more realistic picture of the country’s fiscal health than traditional debt measurements.
The group warned that Nigeria is still operating in a high-risk fiscal environment and urged the government to take stronger action to prevent future economic pressure.
To address the situation, the NESG called for major fiscal reforms, better revenue mobilisation, and more responsible debt management. It noted that improving government income and reducing excessive borrowing are necessary steps toward building a stronger and more stable economy.
The organisation also advised policymakers to focus on long-term economic resilience rather than relying on temporary improvements in debt indicators.
