Nigeria and Türkiye have set an ambitious target to raise bilateral trade to five billion dollars annually, backed by nine new agreements covering defence, trade, education, and institutional cooperation. The deals, signed during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s state visit to Ankara, reposition the relationship from routine commerce to structured strategic engagement.
Current trade between both countries is estimated at roughly two billion dollars. Doubling that figure will require more than diplomatic optimism. It will depend on policy coordination, investment protection, and reduced friction for businesses operating across both markets.
At the centre of the new framework is the Joint Economy and Trade Committee, designed to translate political commitments into operational outcomes. The committee links regulators, trade ministries, and the private sector, with a mandate to remove bottlenecks, harmonise standards, and monitor implementation.
Dr. Oluwatosin Adesina, an economist and researcher, described the mechanism as essential rather than symbolic. “The JETCO serves as the primary institutional engine to translate summit level commitments into technical implementation,” he said. “It moves cooperation beyond ad hoc projects to whole of government coordination.”
For Nigeria, the committee offers predictability in a business environment often criticised for regulatory inconsistency and customs delays. For Türkiye, it provides structured access to West Africa’s largest economy and a clearer pathway for investment.
Trade expansion will rely heavily on sectors where Nigeria holds immediate comparative advantages. Agriculture leads that list. A new Memorandum of Understanding on Halal Quality Infrastructure allows Nigerian producers to meet certification standards required in Türkiye and other Muslim majority markets, removing non tariff barriers that previously restricted exports.
“Agricultural commodities with Halal certification represent the most immediate and structural opportunity,” Adesina said. “This protocol addresses the standards gap that has historically limited Nigeria’s agricultural penetration into those markets.”
Export trends already suggest momentum. Cocoa shipments to Türkiye have risen, while sesame seeds, cashew nuts, ginger, hibiscus flower, and leather inputs are gaining ground with Turkish processors and manufacturers. Solid minerals such as gypsum and marble are also finding buyers within Türkiye’s construction industry.
Crude oil remains dominant, yet both governments aim to rebalance trade toward value added production. Nigeria is being positioned as a manufacturing base for Turkish firms seeking access to the African Continental Free Trade Area.
“This is a strategic pivot,” Adesina noted. “Nigeria is now positioned as a manufacturing hub for Turkish companies seeking access to the 1.3 billion person AfCFTA market. That shifts the relationship from extractive trade to value added production.”
Türkiye already maintains a visible commercial presence. More than fifty Turkish owned firms operate across construction, energy, and light manufacturing, with investments approaching four hundred million dollars and project pipelines worth billions more. The new agreements are designed to deepen and secure that footprint.
A strengthened Bilateral Investment Treaty provides safeguards against expropriation and guarantees dispute resolution through international arbitration. Two special economic zones in Lagos and Kano offer tax incentives, faster customs processes, and improved infrastructure for export oriented manufacturers.
“How can Turkish companies invest safely and profitably,” Adesina asked rhetorically. “The answer lies in institutional safeguards, structured corridors, and joint ventures with credible Nigerian partners. The risk reward balance improves when rules are predictable.”
Energy and infrastructure projects form another pillar. Turkish contractors are active in power and transport development, while partnerships in oil and gas align with Nigeria’s broader reform agenda. These investments are expected to lower production costs and improve competitiveness for manufacturers.
Security cooperation also features prominently. Nigeria continues to confront insurgency and banditry that disrupt supply chains and discourage capital inflows. Defence agreements cover training, intelligence sharing, and equipment support.
“Security challenges remain the primary operational risk,” Adesina said. “Military cooperation and surveillance technology reduce those risks and protect business assets in volatile regions.”
Employment gains are expected across agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and technical services. Halal certification alone requires auditors, inspectors, and processors. Manufacturing clusters create factory and logistics jobs. Infrastructure projects generate both skilled and semi skilled roles.
“Direct employment will come from defence maintenance, energy infrastructure, and agro processing,” Adesina explained. “But the deeper impact is skills transfer and technology adoption. That is what builds long term productivity.”
Small businesses are also positioned to benefit. A joint SME development fund and supplier programmes are helping Nigerian firms integrate into Turkish led value chains, broadening participation beyond large corporations.
Despite the opportunities, structural constraints persist. Currency volatility, inconsistent regulations, port congestion, and power shortages continue to raise transaction costs. Without domestic reform, external partnerships will deliver limited results.
“Rules, security, and infrastructure remain the core problems businesses face,” Adesina said. “Mitigation means using special economic zones, leveraging JETCO’s facilitation role, and concentrating investments where government support is strongest.”
Geopolitically, the partnership reflects changing alliances. Türkiye is expanding its presence across Africa through economic and security engagement. Nigeria seeks to diversify beyond traditional partners and reduce overreliance on a narrow set of markets.
The five billion dollar target therefore carries strategic weight beyond trade statistics. It signals an effort to build a rules based relationship anchored in production, skills, and institutional cooperation rather than simple commodity exchange.
Success will ultimately be measured in higher exports, stronger industries, and sustained job creation. Agreements alone will not deliver these outcomes. Implementation will.
If the institutional mechanisms function as intended and reforms address domestic constraints, Nigeria and Türkiye may convert ambition into measurable gains. If not, the target will remain aspirational. For both governments, the coming months will test whether strategy can translate into execution and whether trade diplomacy can produce durable economic returns.
