NNPC Limited has doubled its crude oil supply to the Dangote Refinery. This was disclosed by the refinery owner, Aliko Dangote, noting NNPC’s supply doubled in March 2026.
According to Dangote, the plant received 10 cargoes during the month, compared to an average of five monthly deliveries since late 2024. He noted that the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars under the existing crude supply arrangement.
The development comes as Nigeria intensifies efforts to strengthen domestic refining capacity amid global supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Industry operators say the increased crude allocation could improve fuel availability nationwide. However, they caution that any meaningful reduction in pump prices will depend on government intervention, particularly in adjusting the pricing of crude supplied to local refineries.
“The increase in crude supply is positive for availability, but price relief is not guaranteed unless crude is sold at a reduced rate to domestic refineries,” operators noted.
Despite the improvement, Dangote said the refinery is still operating below optimal capacity. The facility requires about 19 cargoes of crude monthly to run efficiently and continues to rely on imports from countries, including the United States, to bridge supply gaps.
He also raised concerns over access to locally produced crude, noting that some international oil companies prefer selling to global traders rather than domestic refiners. This forces the refinery to repurchase Nigerian crude at higher prices. “The higher we pay, the higher the cost of petroleum products, because we have to pass on the cost,” Dangote said.
The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become an increasingly important supplier across Africa. Dangote revealed that about 17 cargoes of petroleum products were exported to other African countries in March alone.
Analysts say this growing regional role underscores the refinery’s strategic importance, especially as disruptions in global supply chains persist.
The crude-for-naira deal between NNPC and the refinery, introduced in 2024 to boost local refining and conserve foreign exchange, has faced implementation challenges, including inconsistent supply and pricing tied to international benchmarks.
According to Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, while increased supply improves availability, Nigerians may not see immediate price relief. “Without government intervention, Nigerians may experience availability but not affordability,” he said, warning that petrol and diesel prices could rise further.
He added that diesel prices have already crossed N2,000 per litre at the depot level, signalling mounting pressure in the downstream market.
Experts say sustained crude supply, improved pricing frameworks, and stronger collaboration with oil producers will be critical to achieving long-term fuel price stability and energy security in Nigeria.
