Nigeria’s inflation pressures edged higher in March 2026, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting persistent cost challenges across the economy even as annual rates remain significantly below the levels recorded a year ago. The Consumer Price Index rose to 135.4, up from 130.0 in February, while headline inflation increased to 15.38 per cent year-on-year, a modest rise from 15.06 per cent in February. The figure represents a dramatic improvement from the 27.35 per cent recorded in March 2025, but the month-on-month acceleration to 4.18 per cent signals renewed short-term price pressures that warrant close monitoring by monetary policymakers.
Food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year, with a slight monthly easing driven by lower price increases in staples such as yam, cassava, and tomatoes. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural items, also moderated on an annual basis but picked up month-on-month, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain embedded in the economy. The divergence between annual moderation and monthly acceleration is significant for the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policy committee, which has held rates steady in recent meetings after an extended tightening cycle. A sustained monthly acceleration could prompt a reconsideration of that stance.
Rural inflation remained higher than urban levels, underlining deeper cost pressures outside major cities where transportation costs, supply chain inefficiencies, and limited access to competitive markets drive prices higher. At the state level, Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Bauchi recorded the highest inflation rates, while Osun, Kano, and Kaduna saw the slowest increases. The geographic variation reflects differences in local agricultural production, security conditions affecting food supply, and proximity to major distribution hubs.
For households and businesses, the mixed inflation picture offers little comfort. While the year-on-year decline from 2025 levels represents genuine progress following the painful reforms of the past two years, the monthly acceleration suggests that the disinflationary trend may have bottomed out. Food prices remain elevated relative to incomes, and any renewed upward pressure would further squeeze household budgets already stretched by high transportation and energy costs. The NBS data will be closely studied by investors seeking signals on the trajectory of interest rates and the naira’s real exchange rate.
