Nigeria’s current account surplus fell sharply by 65.5% to $1.4 billion in Q4 2025, down from $4.06 billion in Q3, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s overall balance of payments (BOP) surplus also declined to $2.67 billion in the fourth quarter, from $4.6 billion in the preceding quarter, highlighting increasing pressure on the external sector due to declining export earnings and rising import demand.
CBN data shows the goods account surplus dropped 60.9% to $1.77 billion as weaker exports weighed on trade performance. Crude oil exports fell 20.5% to $6.77 billion, while refined petroleum exports declined 13.97% to $1.97 billion. Meanwhile, non-oil imports rose 24.9% to $8.77 billion, further narrowing the trade surplus. Total exports fell to $13.36 billion from $15.31 billion in Q3, amplifying the strain on the current account.
The primary income account deficit widened 47.3% to $3.27 billion, driven by higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. The services account saw slight improvement, with net outflows narrowing to $3.32 billion from $3.95 billion, while the secondary income account, largely remittance-driven, contributed $6.21 billion, cushioning the overall position.
On capital flows, Nigeria recorded higher net borrowing of $1.96 billion in Q4, up from $0.79 billion in Q3. Portfolio investment inflows jumped to $5.27 billion from $2.51 billion, indicating renewed foreign interest in Nigerian assets, while foreign direct investment (FDI) declined to $1.11 billion from $1.46 billion, reflecting weaker long-term commitments.
Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s external reserves increased 6.97% to $45.75 billion at the end of December 2025 from $42.77 billion in September, supported by strong remittances and portfolio inflows.
The sharp decline in oil export earnings and rising imports underscore Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to external shocks, emphasizing the country’s reliance on oil revenues and exposure to global commodity fluctuations.
CBN noted that while portfolio investments, remittances, and rising reserves offered some support, the external sector remains under pressure. Analysts suggest that policymakers will need to carefully manage imports, encourage diversification of export earnings, and strengthen domestic resilience to sustain external stability.
