Insights from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA), an initiative of Lagos Business School Pan-Atlantic University, have outlined a clear pathway for Nigeria to reverse its estimated 300–350 million litres of annual ethanol imports by leveraging its vast cassava resources and strengthening agro-industrial systems. According to NCIA findings, Nigeria’s ethanol demand stood at about 400 million litres in 2024, with roughly three-quarters supplied through imports despite the country producing over 60 million tonnes of cassava annually.
The report emphasised that the first step toward import substitution is organising reliable cassava supply chains. Industrial ethanol production requires consistent volumes of cassava delivered to specification something the current spot-market system cannot guarantee. NCIA recommended the development of structured outgrower networks, aggregation centres, and coordinated logistics systems to ensure steady year-round supply through staggered planting across Nigeria’s multiple agroecological zones.
To replace imports, NCIA estimated that Nigeria would need to process about 1.8 to 2.0 million tonnes of cassava annually, which is just around three per cent of national output, into ethanol. However, achieving this requires significant investment in processing infrastructure. Unlike sugarcane molasses, cassava must undergo starch extraction and enzymatic conversion before fermentation, making production more capital-intensive. The report stressed that plants must operate at high utilisation rates to remain profitable, with efficiency in energy use and conversion processes being critical to cost competitiveness.
NCIA highlighted existing industry moves as proof of viability. Nosak Group is expanding its cassava-to-ethanol operations through integrated farming and processing, including outgrower schemes and new facilities. Such investments demonstrate that securing local feedstock can reduce exposure to foreign exchange volatility and import disruptions. Another key recommendation is aligning production with specific market segments, with ethanol demand spanning beverages, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and potentially fuel blending, each with strict quality and certification requirements.
The report also underscored the importance of improving project economics through by-products. Fermentation residues can be processed into animal feed, while captured carbon dioxide can be sold for beverage production, significantly enhancing the financial viability of ethanol plants. NCIA noted that scaling domestic ethanol production will require supportive policy frameworks, including incentives for agro-processing, infrastructure development, and access to long-term financing tailored to industrial agriculture.
From an economic perspective, Nigeria’s reliance on imported ethanol is not due to lack of raw materials but weak industrial coordination. With the right systems in place, a small fraction of cassava output could meet a significant share of national ethanol demand. The report frames the opportunity as a shift from agricultural abundance to industrial capability one that could reduce import dependence, stabilise supply, boost rural incomes, and conserve foreign exchange currently spent on ethanol imports.
