Nigeria recorded 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with about 66 per cent of the reported volume occurring in the fourth quarter, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The commission disclosed this in its 2025 annual report released on Thursday, November 5, which also detailed the country’s crude oil production, domestic supply, exports and field development activities during the year. Data from the report showed that Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter, while the second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume identified during its reconciliation process.
Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter before rising sharply to 2.19 million barrels in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly figure recorded during the year. The fourth quarter figure accounted for approximately 66 per cent of the total reported crude oil theft, highlighting the concentration of losses towards the end of 2025.
Despite the losses, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate during the year, based on the quarterly figures contained in the report. Production increased from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to 137.69 million barrels in the second quarter. However, output slightly declined to 137.45 million barrels in the third quarter and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter. Unblended condensate production added another 48.52 million barrels during the year.
The commission also reported progress in processing field development plans aimed at expanding Nigeria’s upstream petroleum production capacity.
According to the report, NUPRC processed 75 Field Development Plan applications in 2025, comprising 58 applications received during the year and 17 carried over from 2024. Of the total applications, 48 were approved, 10 were rejected, while 17 remained under processing at the end of the year. The approved projects are expected to develop approximately 1.75 billion barrels of oil reserves, 104.48 million barrels of condensate reserves and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. They are also projected to add 743,830 barrels of oil per day, 23,707 barrels of condensate per day and 3.09 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to Nigeria’s production capacity.
According to the commission, the approved projects are expected to achieve first oil between 2026 and 2030. Seven of the 48 approved plans are focused exclusively on non-associated gas development. The latest figures come amid continued concerns about crude oil losses and Nigeria’s ability to meet its production targets.
In August 2026, businessman Tony Elumelu said Nigeria’s oil production losses had declined from 97 per cent before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to two per cent as of June 2026, according to an earlier report by Nairametrics. For 2026, the Federal Government’s budget is based on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
However, Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.505 million barrels per day from July 2026, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The difference between actual production and the government’s target underscores the pressure on Nigeria to improve output, strengthen security around oil facilities and address losses within the petroleum sector.
