Nigeria has not declared an end to crude oil exports, but recent policy decisions point to a gradual shift towards retaining more crude for domestic refining rather than overseas sales. Rather than imposing an outright export ban, the Federal Government has introduced measures that increasingly prioritise local processing while allowing exports to continue.
One of the clearest signals came in February, when the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) temporarily withheld approvals for new petrol import licences after assessing that domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote Refinery and supported by output from rehabilitated state-owned refineries, could meet much of Nigeria’s gasoline demand. Although approvals reportedly resumed for some marketers in subsequent months, the move marked a significant departure from years of heavy dependence on imported fuel.
Supporting this shift is the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) established under the Petroleum Industry Act, which requires upstream producers to prioritise supplies to domestic refineries before exporting crude. Implementation, however, has remained uneven. Dangote Refinery has repeatedly said it has struggled to secure sufficient domestic crude allocations, prompting it to import feedstock from countries including the United States, Brazil, Angola and Algeria, while maintaining that it aims to source all of its crude requirements locally by the end of the year.
Crude exports nevertheless remain central to Nigeria’s economy. According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) trade data, the country exported about 182.2 million barrels of crude oil in the first half of 2026, generating approximately ₦24.02 trillion in export earnings. Based on Nigeria’s reported production during the period, this represented roughly two-thirds of total crude output. Higher international prices also supported revenues, with Bonny Light crude trading around $71 per barrel in February 2026, above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
Industry stakeholders have increasingly argued that Nigeria should capture more value from its crude resources through domestic refining. Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, Nigeria’s OPEC Governor and Chairman of OPEC’s Board of Governors, has advocated a gradual transition from exporting mostly crude oil to expanding domestic refining and petrochemical capacity. Energy economist Wumi Iledare has similarly supported greater local value addition but has cautioned that this should not be interpreted as an imminent end to crude exports.
For now, the main constraint remains refining capacity rather than government policy. With additional modular and greenfield refinery projects under development and domestic refining capacity expected to expand further, Nigeria is likely to reduce crude exports gradually as more barrels are processed locally. Given the country’s continued reliance on oil revenues to finance the 2026 budget, any abrupt halt to crude exports appears unlikely. Instead, policymakers are expected to continue managing the transition through domestic supply obligations and regulatory measures rather than an outright export prohibition.
