The recent decline in global oil prices following a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has provided some relief from inflationary pressures in many emerging economies. However, global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft has warned that lower oil prices alone will not be enough to prevent growing social unrest, as many households are still struggling with the effects of months of rising living costs.
According to the consultancy, the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran agreement has helped push Brent crude prices back toward $70 per barrel. While this has eased concerns over fuel supply disruptions, the benefits are unlikely to be felt immediately by consumers.
Experts say that the high cost of fuel experienced over recent months has already placed a heavy financial burden on families across many developing nations. Inflation remains elevated, and it could take several months before lower energy prices translate into cheaper goods and services.
Verisk Maplecroft revealed that global civil unrest reached its highest level in six years during the second quarter of 2026. The firm’s civil unrest index, which tracks the number, size and severity of protests around the world, showed a significant increase in demonstrations linked to rising fuel prices and the increasing cost of living.
Countries such as Kenya, Indonesia and Bolivia have recently witnessed protests over higher energy prices, while Iraq recorded the largest increase in protest activity among emerging markets over the past year. Turkey also experienced a sharp rise in demonstrations, while India, already considered one of the world’s highest-risk countries for protests, saw even more public unrest.
Other major emerging economies have also experienced worsening conditions. Brazil’s civil unrest risk has increased noticeably, while Iran continues to face heightened tensions following widespread anti-government protests earlier this year.
Analysts explained that governments face difficult decisions as they try to manage rising costs. Nations with stronger financial reserves, including Indonesia and the Philippines, can provide subsidies to reduce the impact on citizens. However, countries with weaker public finances must choose between allowing fuel prices to rise further or increasing government spending, which could worsen budget deficits.
Verisk Maplecroft noted that tighter government finances often contribute to greater inequality and poverty, increasing the likelihood of social unrest.
Although countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya and Nigeria have recorded slight improvements in their civil unrest risk over the past year, they remain classified as high-risk nations due to ongoing economic pressures.
Looking ahead, analysts expect countries including India, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Turkey to remain particularly vulnerable to further protests. In Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria and South Africa are also being closely monitored for possible unrest linked to fuel costs and economic hardship.
Financial experts also warned that governments working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may face added challenges. The IMF generally encourages countries to reduce broad fuel subsidies, making it harder for governments to provide relief without affecting ongoing economic reform programmes.
Despite these concerns, some economists believe fuel subsidy reforms across emerging markets have made progress compared to a few years ago. Still, they caution that if tensions in the Middle East return and oil prices rise again, inflation and public protests could quickly intensify once more.
