Nigeria may soon see lower fuel prices as petrol and diesel costs begin to decline following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices. The easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced pressure on the international oil market, leading to price adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and several private fuel depots.
Industry stakeholders, however, have explained that fuel prices will not fall overnight. According to the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), a gradual approach is necessary to protect marketers who purchased fuel at higher prices during the recent period of market uncertainty.
Global crude oil prices had surged to about $120 per barrel during the conflict involving the United States and Iran. However, after a peace agreement was reached between both countries, crude prices dropped significantly to around $78 per barrel. This decline has started to influence fuel pricing across Nigeria.
In response to the changing market conditions, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its petrol loading price by N75 per litre, bringing it down from N1,250 to N1,175 per litre. The refinery also cut diesel and aviation fuel prices by N100 per litre each.
Despite these reductions, many Nigerians believe fuel prices should have fallen more sharply considering the large drop in crude oil prices. Industry experts, however, argue that fuel pricing depends on several factors beyond crude costs alone.
IPMAN spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike explained that sudden and major reductions could create significant financial losses for marketers who still have fuel purchased at higher prices in storage. He noted that a gradual adjustment process would allow businesses to recover their investments while ensuring consumers eventually benefit from lower prices.
According to him, the refinery is expected to continue reviewing market conditions and adjusting prices accordingly. He added that fuel prices should continue to decline over the coming weeks as stability returns to the global oil market.
Ukadike also pointed to plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, as another factor supporting lower fuel prices. He said marketers are already becoming more cautious about buying fresh stock because they expect further reductions in the near future.
Sources within the Dangote Group also defended the refinery’s pricing strategy, explaining that the company is still processing crude oil purchased when prices were significantly higher. They stressed that fuel prices cannot immediately reflect lower crude costs when existing inventories were acquired at expensive rates.
Meanwhile, private depot operators have begun adjusting their prices to remain competitive. Reports show that some depots reduced petrol prices to around N1,180 per litre shortly after Dangote announced its latest cut.
Although many filling stations are still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre, some outlets have already reduced pump prices by approximately N10 per litre. Marketers expect additional reductions from suppliers and retailers between the weekend and next week.
Industry observers believe that if global oil prices remain stable and geopolitical tensions continue to ease, Nigerians could see more affordable petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel prices in the coming weeks.
