As Nigerians await the release of April inflation data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), economists are expressing cautious expectations, with many predicting that inflation will remain high despite recent signs of easing.
A survey of seven economists shows a general agreement that price pressures are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. Key factors such as exchange rate instability, rising transport and energy costs, and ongoing food supply challenges are expected to keep inflation levels elevated.
Johnson Chukwu, Managing Director of Cowry Assets Management Limited, believes inflation could rise slightly in April. He explained that increased energy costs, especially fuel and transportation, are pushing prices higher across multiple sectors. According to him, inflation may increase by at least 20 basis points, reaching between 15.6% and 15.8%.
Similarly, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), highlighted the growing impact of fuel and shipping costs. He noted that both have risen in recent months, contributing to overall inflationary pressure. While he did not give a precise figure, he expects inflation to trend upward.
Moses Igbrude, Chairman of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, also anticipates a moderate increase. He pointed out that Nigeria continues to face a situation where too much money is chasing limited goods and services, a long-standing issue that fuels inflation.
Paul Olaleye, an economist at CashLinks, added that inflation could either remain stable or rise slightly. He linked this to global factors such as the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has increased costs for businesses. He explained that companies are dealing with multiple expenses, including rent, energy, and transportation, making it difficult to reduce prices for consumers.
However, not all experts share the same outlook. Dr. Ayo Teriba, CEO of Economic Associates, believes inflation may not change significantly. He argued that recent economic improvements, such as stronger foreign reserves and stock market growth, indicate a more stable foundation. According to him, fuel prices no longer have as strong an impact on inflation due to alternative energy options.
Other analysts remain more cautious. Dr. Felix Echekoba of Nnamdi Azikiwe University expects inflation to rise to around 16%, driven largely by increases in fuel and gas prices, which affect food and transport costs. Zakari Mohammed of Auchi Polytechnic shares a similar view, predicting inflation between 15.5% and 16%. He also noted that rising rent and ongoing supply chain disruptions are adding to the pressure.
Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 15.38% in March 2026, marking a reversal after months of gradual decline. Despite government efforts and adjustments, inflation continues to strain household incomes and reduce purchasing power.
Over time, inflation has remained a major economic challenge in Nigeria. Although there have been brief periods of lower rates, the country has largely experienced persistent inflation due to structural weaknesses, fiscal pressures, and currency depreciation.
Even recent wage increases have struggled to keep up with rising prices, leaving many Nigerians feeling the impact of a high cost of living.
