In a stark warning that underscores a metastasizing threat to Africa’s largest economy, the All-Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) has issued an urgent call for the federal government to convene a high-level national committee dedicated to de-escalating the protracted farmer-herder conflict.The intervention, voiced by AFAN President Mohammed Magaji, comes as rural insecurity shifts from a localized humanitarian tragedy to a systemic drag on national economic output and food inflation dynamics.
The direct plea reflects deepening frustration within the agricultural sector, which contributes roughly 25% to Nigeria’s gross domestic product but remains paralyzed by cyclical violence over diminishing land and water resources.In an exclusive briefing, Magaji argued that fragmented state-level interventions have failed to stop the hemorrhage of rural capital. “We are witnessing a slow-motion collapse of the agrarian economy,” Magaji stated. “The absence of a centralized, multi-stakeholder framework means we are merely managing crises, not resolving the structural friction. A national committee is the minimum viable mechanism to prevent Nigeria from plunging into a full-scale food security disaster.”
The proposed committee, AFAN insists, must transcend the rhetorical peace pacts of previous administrations by binding federal security apparatus, judiciary, and agricultural policy chiefs into a dashboard of specific, measurable deliverables. The model seeks to shift the paradigm from reactive military containment to proactive resource governance, including demarcated grazing reserves and rapid response conflict mediation cells.The macroeconomic tail-risk is considerable. Spiking farm-gate attrition in the Middle Belt has constricted the supply chains of staples like yam, rice, and sorghum.
This supply shock transmits directly to core inflation, a metric the Central Bank of Nigeria is struggling to tame via orthodox monetary tightening. Analysts warn that failing to de-risk primary production via a cohesive stabilization fund and conflict resolution architecture will render monetary policy impotent against structurally driven food inflation.Magaji noted that the paralysis of smallholder farmers, who account for roughly 80% of domestic output, is a leading indicator of worsening terms of trade. “Investors will not allocate capital to an asset class where physical security and contract enforcement are absent,” he said, signaling that long term commercial farming ventures are delaying expansion.
The presidency has yet to issue a formal response to AFAN’s proposal. However, the demand puts a sharper edge on the government’s declared state of emergency on food security, testing its capacity to engineer a détente that goes beyond military enforcement to address the economic grievances fueling the conflict. Investors and multilateral lenders will closely watch whether this call to action catalyzes a synchronized policy instrument, or merely adds to the ledger of unmet ultimatums in Nigeria’s complex rural strife.
