Nigeria’s headline inflation rate experienced a marginal cooling in February 2026, easing to 15.06% from the 15.10% recorded in January. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday, March 16, 2026, this represents a significant year-on-year improvement, falling 11.21 percentage points from the 26.27% recorded in February 2025.
The structural and statistical consequence of the report reveals a complex internal pressure despite the headline dip. While the year-on-year figures show a downward trend, the month-on-month headline inflation rose to 2.01%, a sharp contrast to the -2.88% recorded in January. The NBS noted that the primary drivers of this persistent pressure remain food and non-alcoholic beverages, followed by restaurants, accommodation, and transport services. The CPI itself climbed to 130.0 points, reflecting a 2.6-point increase in the average price level within a single month.
Analytically, the food inflation sub-index mirrors this volatility. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation dropped to 12.12% nearly 15 percentage points lower than the previous year. However, the month-on-month food inflation surged to 4.69%, driven by the rising costs of staples such as beans, cassava tubers, yams, millet flour, and crayfish. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and agricultural produce, followed a similar path, standing at 15.88% year-on-year but showing a slight monthly uptick of 0.89%.
The impact on “Regional and Urban-Rural Disparities” highlights significant variations across the federation. Urban inflation stood higher at 15.53% year-on-year, while rural inflation was recorded at 13.93%. Geographically, the “all-items” index showed that Kogi (23.57%), Benue (22.85%), and Anambra (22.09%) faced the highest inflationary pressures. Conversely, Katsina recorded the lowest headline inflation at 7.78%, maintaining its position as one of the least expensive states in the current window.
Furthermore, the state-level food profile indicates that Kogi also leads in food costs at 26.91% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, however, Bayelsa (8.81%) and Ebonyi (8.51%) saw the sharpest spikes in food prices. Interestingly, some states recorded a monthly decline in general prices, led by Zamfara (-2.14%) and Bauchi (-1.23%), suggesting localized pockets of price stability or harvest-induced gluts.
The long-term outlook for Nigeria’s economy suggests a gradual stabilization compared to the hyper-inflationary peaks of 2025, though the month-on-month bounce indicates that price volatility is not yet fully contained. As energy and imported food costs continue to fluctuate, the NBS data provides a critical baseline for the Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decisions. For the average consumer, the data suggests that while the “rate of increase” is slower than last year, the monthly cost of basic food items remains on an upward trajectory.
