President Bola Tinubu’s latest overhaul of Nigeria’s military leadership has reignited debate about the country’s long-running struggle with insecurity, and what it means for ordinary Nigerians whose livelihoods are deeply affected by the country’s fragile security landscape.
Last Friday, the President announced sweeping changes across the top ranks of the armed forces. Lieutenant General Olufemi Oluyede, until now the Chief of Army Staff, has been elevated to Chief of Defence Staff, replacing General Christopher Musa. Major General Waidi Shaibu now steps in as Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke takes over as Chief of Air Staff, and Rear Admiral Idi Abbas assumes command as Chief of Naval Staff. Major General Emmanuel Undiandeye remains Chief of Defence Intelligence, a signal of some continuity amid the reshuffle.
The appointments, which take immediate effect, represent Tinubu’s second major shake-up of the military since he assumed office in May 2023. The President thanked the outgoing service chiefs for their service, urging the new leadership to “enhance professionalism, coordination, and jointness” within the armed forces. Yet beyond the formalities, this reshuffle reflects the growing urgency to respond to the persistent insecurity that continues to define daily life for millions of Nigerians.
A Battle on Many Fronts
Nigeria’s security challenges have stretched its military thin. In the northeast, the battle against Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) drags into its 15th year, with sporadic attacks on civilians and military convoys still reported. In the northwest, heavily armed bandits continue to raid villages, kidnap travellers, and demand ransoms that have devastated rural economies. The north-central region remains tense due to farmer-herder conflicts, while separatist violence in the southeast and oil theft in the Niger Delta further test the military’s capacity.
The Tinubu administration came into office promising decisive action on security, recognising it as a key pillar of economic revival. But with the cost of living soaring and public confidence in government waning, the renewed military reshuffle signals both acknowledgement of existing shortcomings and a bid to project control.
Economic Ripples of Insecurity
For the average Nigerian, insecurity is not an abstract issue confined to frontlines. It has direct and far-reaching economic consequences. In the north, where farming is the mainstay of local economies, persistent attacks have forced thousands of farmers off their land. Food supply chains are disrupted, leading to soaring prices in urban markets. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that food inflation hit record highs in 2024, a trend analysts partly attribute to the inability of farmers to safely cultivate and transport produce.
The transport and logistics sectors have also been heavily affected. With major highways deemed unsafe, traders and transporters face high risks of ambush or kidnapping. This raises the cost of moving goods, with the burden ultimately passed on to consumers. Even in cities like Lagos and Abuja, rising security spending diverts public funds that could have gone to infrastructure, education, or healthcare, compounding the everyday struggles of citizens. Foreign direct investment has declined steadily in recent years, with insecurity cited as a major deterrent. Nigeria loses billions annually to conflict-related disruptions, a figure that dwarfs budget allocations for social welfare.
Balancing Reform with Results
The reshuffle could bring new energy to the armed forces, but success will depend on whether the new service chiefs can foster inter-agency cooperation and modernise their approach to asymmetric warfare. The Nigerian military, despite its size and experience, has long struggled with intelligence gaps, corruption, and low morale among rank-and-file personnel.
Lieutenant General Oluyede, the new Chief of Defence Staff, is widely seen as a seasoned strategist with experience in counterinsurgency operations. His challenge will be to align the military’s strategy with broader national security goals, not just in fighting insurgents, but also in restoring public trust.
For President Tinubu, the stakes are political as much as they are national. The government faces rising public frustration over insecurity, high fuel prices, and unemployment. By changing the military hierarchy, Tinubu may hope to signal responsiveness and reinforce his authority at a time when many Nigerians feel increasingly vulnerable.
A Test of Continuity and Confidence
Whether this reshuffle translates into tangible improvements remains to be seen. The outgoing chiefs were appointed amid similar optimism in 2023, yet security indicators have since worsened in several areas. Personnel changes alone cannot deliver stability without deeper reforms in defence spending, intelligence sharing, and civil-military relations.
For now, ordinary Nigerians will judge the move by its outcomes, not its symbolism. A farmer in Zamfara, a commuter on the Kaduna-Abuja highway, or a trader in Onitsha all measure “security” in terms of safety, stability, and affordability; whether they can travel freely, farm safely, or afford basic goods without fear or scarcity.
Tinubu’s latest military reshuffle may, therefore, mark more than a bureaucratic adjustment. It is a test of whether leadership changes at the top can finally filter down to real security and economic relief at the grassroots, where it matters most.
