Nigeria posted a trade surplus of ₦6.69 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest foreign trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics. Although this figure represents a decline of 10.36 per cent from the ₦7.4 trillion surplus recorded in the second quarter, it signals that Nigeria continues to maintain a positive trade balance, supported predominantly by exports of crude oil and other key commodities. Total trade during the period rose to ₦38.94 trillion, reflecting an 8.71 per cent increase year-on-year and a 2.36 per cent growth from the previous quarter.
Exports accounted for 58.6 per cent of total trade at ₦22.81 trillion, underlining Nigeria’s continued reliance on international demand for its primary commodities. Crude oil remained the dominant export, valued at ₦12.8 trillion and representing 56.1 per cent of total exports. The contribution of crude oil to exports highlights both the resilience and the vulnerability of Nigeria’s trade profile, given that global oil prices and production dynamics continue to shape revenue inflows. Non-crude exports reached ₦10 trillion, with non-oil products contributing ₦2.99 trillion. Key non-oil exports included agricultural commodities, solid minerals, and manufactured goods, reflecting ongoing efforts to diversify the country’s export base, though their share remains relatively modest compared with hydrocarbon exports.
On the import side, Nigeria’s total imports stood at ₦16.12 trillion. The composition of imports was dominated by mineral fuels, machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals, signalling the country’s dependence on industrial and technological inputs to support domestic production and infrastructure development. Notably, China maintained its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, with trade valued at ₦4.78 trillion, followed by the United States, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Belgium. On the export front, India emerged as Nigeria’s top destination, with Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Italy also representing significant markets, collectively accounting for 38.3 per cent of total exports. These trading relationships underscore Nigeria’s integration into global supply chains and highlight the importance of both traditional and emerging markets in sustaining export earnings.
Economically, the trade surplus provides several key implications for Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability and policy landscape. A positive trade balance generally supports the Nigerian naira by mitigating pressure on foreign exchange reserves, which have historically been vulnerable to external shocks such as fluctuating oil prices and global demand shifts. By maintaining a surplus, Nigeria can better manage its current account and reduce reliance on borrowing to finance import needs, which is critical for fiscal sustainability.
However, the decline in the trade surplus compared with the previous quarter points to potential vulnerabilities. The drop may be attributed to fluctuations in crude oil prices, changing international demand, or rising import volumes, particularly for industrial and consumer goods. Policymakers may interpret this as a signal to accelerate efforts to boost non-oil exports and deepen economic diversification, reducing the economy’s exposure to commodity price volatility. Strengthening sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services could generate higher-value exports and create employment opportunities, further supporting economic growth.
The performance of non-crude exports, which reached ₦10 trillion, demonstrates progress in diversification efforts but also emphasises the need for targeted interventions to enhance competitiveness. Investments in export infrastructure, access to trade finance, and quality improvements could enable Nigerian products to capture a larger share of global markets. Similarly, managing import demand through policies that promote local production could reduce pressure on foreign exchange and encourage domestic value addition.
From a regional and international perspective, Nigeria’s trading patterns reflect both opportunity and competition. India’s position as the top export destination presents opportunities for expanding trade in sectors beyond oil, including agriculture and processed goods. Similarly, China’s dominance in imports signals both the critical role of Chinese inputs in supporting Nigeria’s industrial base and the need to balance trade relationships to prevent over-reliance on a single partner. Strategic engagement with these markets, alongside diversification of trade partners, will be important in sustaining economic resilience.
In summary, Nigeria’s ₦6.69 trillion trade surplus in the third quarter of 2025 underscores the country’s ongoing engagement in global trade and its dependence on oil exports, while highlighting incremental progress in non-oil sectors. While the surplus supports macroeconomic stability and foreign exchange management, the quarter-on-quarter decline and continued import dependence signal areas for policy focus, particularly in economic diversification and export competitiveness. Ensuring that trade growth translates into sustainable economic benefits will require concerted effort across industrial, agricultural, and services sectors, as Nigeria continues to navigate the complex dynamics of the global economy.
