Ivory Coast will announce the fixed farmgate price for its upcoming cocoa mid-crop before the end of February, an accelerated timeline that underscores the urgency facing the world’s largest producer as it grapples with a dramatic global price collapse. Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagne Kone confirmed the government would make an announcement “in a few days,” including pricing for the April-to-September mid-crop, typically unveiled in late March or early April. The accelerated schedule reflects intense pressure on Abidjan to respond to a market rout that has seen global cocoa futures fall more than 70 percent from their late-2024 record highs.
The price collapse has fundamentally altered the economics of West African cocoa production. Futures, which nearly tripled to unprecedented levels in late 2024 as disease and adverse weather constrained supply, now hover around $3,100 per ton. This reversal stems from weakening global demand and improved supply prospects, creating a structural mismatch between the high fixed prices set by producing countries and the realities of international markets.
Ivory Coast currently maintains its farmgate price at approximately $5,000 per metric ton (2,800 CFA francs per kilogram), a level set at the start of the 2025/26 season in October when global prices were substantially higher. Government sources indicate Abidjan is now considering cutting this rate closer to Ghana’s revised level. Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer, reduced its farmgate price by 28.6 percent to 41,392 cedis (approximately $3,764 per ton) for the remainder of the 2025/2026 season, acknowledging that its beans had become “uncompetitive and very expensive” in global markets.
The divergence in pricing strategies has created significant strain in the supply chain. In Ivory Coast, exporters have reportedly refused to purchase beans at the guaranteed price, leaving warehouses congested with unsold stock. The government launched a programme in January to purchase up to 100,000 metric tons of surplus cocoa at a cost exceeding 280 billion CFA francs ($516 million) to prevent a social crisis among farmers. Despite this intervention, reports indicate that over 100,000 tonnes remain stranded at ports due to exporter liquidity constraints and buyer reluctance.
Ghana’s price cut was explicitly designed to restore trader interest and clear approximately 50,000 tonnes of cocoa held at its ports. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson stated that buyers’ reluctance to purchase Ghanaian cocoa stemmed from its uncompetitiveness at previous price levels. The move reflects a pragmatic adjustment to market realities, even at the cost of immediate farmer incomes.
For Ivory Coast, the decision carries enormous economic weight. Cocoa is the backbone of the Ivorian economy, supporting millions of rural livelihoods and generating substantial export revenue. Maintaining the current price risks continued stock accumulation, quality deterioration of stored beans, and potential loss of market share to Ghanaian cocoa now priced more competitively. However, a sharp cut risks immediate hardship for farmers who invested in production based on the higher guaranteed price and could trigger social unrest in rural areas.
The strategic coordination between the two dominant producers, formalised through the Ivory Coast–Ghana Cocoa Initiative (ICCIG), faces its most severe test since its 2017 formation. Alex Assanvo, ICCIG’s executive secretary, stated that the organisation “remains mobilised to coordinate policies in both countries” and would convene sector stakeholders to review market developments and propose improvements to price stabilisation mechanisms. The alliance’s credibility depends on its ability to navigate this crisis without triggering a competitive race to the bottom.
The broader market context compounds the difficulty. Global cocoa demand remains soft, with European and Asian grindings declining, while improved growing conditions in West Africa point toward potential surplus production. Commerzbank has warned that chocolate makers’ current demand weakness means additional supply could keep futures under pressure. Some traders have begun diversifying cocoa sourcing away from West Africa after contract postponements and as South American harvests increase.
Exporters argue that Ivorian beans remain too expensive even at current levels. Beyond the fixed farmgate price, buyers must also pay origin differentials tied to quality and the $400-per-ton Living Income Differential introduced in the 2020/21 season to improve farmer earnings. These additional costs further erode competitiveness when global prices have fallen below $3,200 per ton.
The timing of Ivory Coast’s decision matters operationally. The mid-crop season, running April through September, typically represents a significant portion of annual output. Farmers need price clarity to make planting and investment decisions. Delaying beyond the accelerated February timeline would create uncertainty that disrupts agricultural planning and potentially reduces output.
For the Ivorian economy, the stakes extend beyond farmer incomes. The cocoa sector’s health affects rural credit markets, input supply chains, transport networks, and government revenue. A prolonged mismatch between domestic prices and global realities risks creating stranded assets, degraded bean quality, and permanent loss of market position. Yet a precipitous cut risks immediate hardship and potential social instability.
The government’s accelerated announcement timeline suggests recognition that inaction is no longer tenable. With global prices showing no immediate prospect of recovery and Ghana already adjusting, Ivory Coast must navigate a narrow path between market competitiveness and farmer welfare. The decision, expected within days, will signal whether the world’s largest cocoa producer can adapt its domestic pricing framework to volatile international markets without sacrificing the livelihoods of the millions who depend on the sector.
